What’s happening in the funeral industry now will influence how it operates in the future. It’s a very consumer-driven industry in many ways. That’s why data on funeral services provides valuable insight into consumer behavior on a national and regional scale.
For many years now the cremation rate has been rapidly increasing in the U.S. It’s a trend that has surprised many people, but not the experts at the Cremation Association of North America (CANA). They expected to see the U.S. cremation rate go up quickly. In 2017 CANA published an article about the S-curve pattern for cremation rates and identified we were in a rapid growth phase.
Based on CANA’s predictive models we could be entering the deceleration period of the S-curve soon. Here’s why that’s the prediction and what it could mean for consumers.
Cremation Rate Over the Years
Organizations like CANA have been tracking the cremation rate for decades. The one overarching trend has been the growth of cremation, but it isn’t constant. The S-curve model has periods where growth slows and is nominal, however it’s still growth rather than decline.
Based on the latest data it appears that the cremation rate is slowing in the U.S. CANA has a benchmark for when a state or region is likely to start deceleration. When the cremation rate reaches 70% that’s when the rate begins to slow significantly.
Many states already have cremation rates that exceed 70%. States that are at the deceleration threshold include:
- Nevada
- Maine
- Oregon
- Washington
- New Hampshire
- Montana
- Vermont
- Hawaiii
- Wyoming
- Colorado
CANA also points to the actual cremation rate numbers to show a slow down is occurring. Between 2008 and 2018 the cremation rate went from 35.7% to 52.9%. But the cremation rate only grew to 60.6% in 2023. The annual growth rate in those last five years was 1.55%.
Keeping an Eye on Canada’s Cremation Rate
An interesting highlight of CANA’s data is being able to compare cremation trends in the U.S. to Canada. There’s been a steady trend of Canada being one step ahead of the U.S. Whatever is happening in Canada seems to be what occurs in the U.S. a few years later.
Canada is now experiencing deceleration in its cremation rate. Canada’s cremation rate in 2023 was 75.3%. The U.S. cremation rate was 60.6% in 2023. If the S-curve model holds true, the U.S. will reach the deceleration tipping point nationally around 2030, shortly after Canada.
The Cremation Deceleration Impact on Consumers
For consumers deceleration would likely mean we’ve simply reached a saturation point. There’s been mass adoption to the point cremation is considered the standard. This should mean that consumers have ample options and prices will stabilize further.
Direct Cremate makes it easy to find affordable direct cremation services online. Contact our team by phone or text at any time if you need assistance arranging a cost-effective direct cremation.
